Assessing and reporting uncertainties in dietary exposure analysis: Mapping of uncertainties in a tiered approach. (August 2015)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Kettler, Susanne; Kennedy, Marc; McNamara, Cronan; Oberdörfer, Regina; O'Mahony, Cian; Schnabel, Jürgen; Smith, Benjamin; Sprong, Corinne; Faludi, Roland; Tennant, David
• Is Part Of: Food and chemical toxicology. Volume 82(2015)
• Page Start: 79
• Page End: 95
• Publication Date: 2015-08
• Subjects: Dietary exposure assessments -- Uncertainty analysis -- Tiered approach -- Deterministic models -- Point estimates -- Probabilistic models; ADI acceptable daily intake -- APET Added Portions Exposure Technique -- EFCOVAL European Food Consumption Validation -- EFSA European Food Safety Authority -- EPIC European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition -- EU European Union -- FAIM Food Additives Intake Model -- FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations -- LOD level of detection -- LOQ level of quantification -- MCRA Monte Carlo Risk Assessment -- MPL maximum permitted level -- MSDI Maximized Survey Derived Intake -- NEVO Dutch Food Composition Database (Nederlands Voedingsstoffenbestand) -- OIM observed individual means -- PRIMo Pesticide Residue Intake Model -- PPR Panel on Plant Protection Products and their Residues -- SCOOP Scientific Co-operation on Questions Relating to Food -- TDS Total Diet Study -- US EPA United States Environmental Protection Agency -- WHO World Health Organization; Toxicology -- Periodicals; Food poisoning -- Periodicals; Food Poisoning -- Periodicals; Toxicology -- Periodicals; Toxicologie -- Périodiques; Intoxications alimentaires -- Périodiques; Food poisoning; Toxicology; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 615.9
• DOI: 10.1016/j.fct.2015.04.007
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0278-6915

Abstract

Highlights: Uncertainty analysis is key to dietary exposure assessments. Mapping uncertainties is an important step. Uncertainties can be introduced by exposure scenario, parameter and the model itself. There are general and model-independent uncertainties. Sources and types of uncertainties can vary in different assessment models. Abstract: Uncertainty analysis is an important component of dietary exposure assessments in order to understand correctly the strength and limits of its results. Often, standard screening procedures are applied in a first step which results in conservative estimates. If through those screening procedures a potential exceedance of health-based guidance values is indicated, within the tiered approach more refined models are applied. However, the sources and types of uncertainties in deterministic and probabilistic models can vary or differ. A key objective of this work has been the mapping of different sources and types of uncertainties to better understand how to best use uncertainty analysis to generate more realistic comprehension of dietary exposure. In dietary exposure assessments, uncertainties can be introduced by knowledge gaps about the exposure scenario, parameter and the model itself. With this mapping, general and model-independent uncertainties have been identified and described, as well as those which can be introduced and influenced by the specific model during the tiered approach. This analysis identifies that there are general uncertainties common to point estimates (screening or deterministic methods) and probabilistic exposure assessment methods. To provide further clarity, general sources of uncertainty affecting many dietary exposure assessments should be separated from model-specific uncertainties.