Variability, trends, and drivers of regional fluctuations in Australian fire activity. Issue 14 (31st July 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Earl, Nick; Simmonds, Ian
• Is Part Of: Journal of geophysical research. Volume 122:Issue 14(2017)
• Page Start: 7445
• Page End: 7460
• Publication Date: 2017-07-31
• Subjects: fire activity -- trends -- climate driver indices -- satellite data; Atmospheric physics -- Periodicals; Geophysics -- Periodicals; 551.5
• DOI: 10.1002/2016JD026312
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2169-897X

Abstract

Abstract: Throughout the world fire regimes are determined by climate, vegetation, and anthropogenic factors, and they have great spatial and temporal variability. The availability of high‐quality satellite data has revolutionized fire monitoring, allowing for a more consistent and comprehensive evaluation of temporal and spatial patterns. Here we utilize a satellite based "active fire" (AF) product to statistically analyze 2001–2015 variability and trends in Australian fire activity and link this to precipitation and large‐scale atmospheric structures (namely, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)) known to have potential for predicting fire activity in different regions. It is found that Australian fire activity is decreasing (during summer (December–February)) or stable, with high temporal and spatial variability. Eastern New South Wales (NSW) has the strongest decreasing trend (to the 1% confidence level), especially during the winter (JJA) season. Other significantly decreasing areas are Victoria/NSW, Tasmania, and South‐east Queensland. These decreasing fire regions are relatively highly populated, so we suggest that the declining trends are due to improved fire management, reducing the size and duration of bush fires. Almost half of all Australian AFs occur during spring (September–November). We show that there is considerable potential throughout Australia for a skillful forecast for future season fire activity based on current and previous precipitation activity, ENSO phase, and to a lesser degree, the IOD phase. This is highly variable, depending on location, e.g., the IOD phase is for more indicative of fire activity in southwest Western Australia than for Queensland. Key Points: Australian fire activity (2001–2015) is either decreasing or steady, with high temporal and spatial variability Decreasing fire regions are likely due to improved fire management, reducing the size and duration of bush fires Potential exists in Australia for skillful forecasts for future season fire activity based on precipitation and climate driver phase.