German regional elections: Patterns of second-order voting. Issue 3 (27th May 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Müller, Jochen
• Is Part Of: Regional & federal studies. Volume 28:Issue 3(2018)
• Page Start: 301
• Page End: 324
• Publication Date: 2018-05-27
• Subjects: German multi-level system -- second-order voting -- regional elections -- party identification; Regionalism -- Periodicals; Regional planning -- Periodicals; Federal government -- Periodicals; 321.02
• DOI: 10.1080/13597566.2017.1417853
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1359-7566

Abstract

ABSTRACT: This paper looks at German regional elections and evaluates the patterns of voting that can be observed in aggregate results and individual behaviour. In the first step, I summarize the characteristic features of political competition in the German multi-level system. I use elections held between 2013 and 2017 to illustrate contextual and election-specific factors that contribute to the observable patterns of voting. In a second step, I evaluate the possible cyclicality of second-order voting using individual data. Based on 139 state election surveys covering 1978 to 2016, I show that the decision-making of German voters changes systematically over the federal election cycle. More specifically, the effect of party identification on vote choice depends on the timing of the election, adding another dimension to the already multi-faceted relationship between Land elections and federal politics.