Are there electoral cycles of emigration? An empirical investigation based on European data. (14th December 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Mourão, Paulo Reis; Ercolano, Salvatore; Gaeta, Giuseppe Lucio
• Is Part Of: International migration. Volume 56:Number 3(2018)
• Page Start: 5
• Page End: 27
• Publication Date: 2017-12-14
• Subjects: Emigration and immigration -- Periodicals; 304.8
• DOI: 10.1111/imig.12421
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0020-7985

Abstract

Abstract: Economic literature suggests that economic factors and the availability of amenities act as determinants of migration choices together with socio‐demographic factors. Migration has also been found to be the consequence of political instability. This article argues that specific political events, i.e., democratic elections, may be linked to migration flows. By using European data over the 1999‐2012 time period, our system GMM estimations reveal that there is an emigration political cycle across European democracies and across the young democracies of Central and Eastern European countries. We observe that regular elections tend to diminish emigration ratios, whereas endogenous elections have the opposite effect. These results suggest special challenges for governments and oppositions, which are also discussed.