1, 000 Futures: Testing Resiliency Using Plausible Future Headlines. (June 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Gordon, Theodore J.
• Is Part Of: World future review. Volume 8:Number 2(2016)
• Page Start: 75
• Page End: 86
• Publication Date: 2016-06
• Subjects: planning -- resilience -- decision making -- foresight -- future events -- future headlines -- methodology -- futures -- futures research -- Black Swans; Forecasting -- Periodicals; Forecasting -- Study and teaching -- Periodicals; Social prediction -- Periodicals; Social indicators -- Periodicals; 303.49
• DOI: 10.1177/1946756716649203
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1946-7567

Abstract

In planning, prospective policies are often subjected to "what if" resiliency tests. The question is asked: would intended decisions work as well if unanticipated events were to occur? This testing approach has two principal problems: there are psychological impediments to an unbiased choice of the test events and the inventory of events from which to choose test events is essentially unbounded. This article describes a database of about one thousand future headlines that help overcome both issues. The headlines in this database describe future events; they are randomly accessed to avoid bias in the selection of events for testing resiliency and the large number of forecasts, while not an "unbounded universe" covers a broad spectrum of possibilities. In addition, many other uses are possible, including improving foresight, finding new market and product opportunities, analyzing competitive differentials, and testing possible strategies for novelty.