The Effect of Spillover on Volatility Forecasting: An Empirical Study in Indian Stock Market. Issue 1 (June 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Karmakar, Madhusudan; Shukla, Girja Kant
• Is Part Of: Metamorphosis. Volume 15:Issue 1(2016)
• Page Start: 20
• Page End: 30
• Publication Date: 2016-06
• Subjects: GARCH -- MGARCH -- multicollinearity -- volatility spillover -- volatility forecast; Management -- India -- Periodicals; Management -- India -- Research -- Periodicals; Management; Research; India; Periodicals; 658.00954
• DOI: 10.1177/0972622516629030
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0972-6225

Abstract

In this article, we have investigated whether the precision of one-step-ahead forecast of the market volatility can be improved by incorporating the spillover effect of other markets. For this, we have used the MGARCH model and shown empirically that if the group of markets is chosen judiciously so as to avoid multicollinearity, then it is indeed possible to obtain better forecasts. For this purpose, we have employed a BEKK parameterization of MGARCH models on the daily data of 10 sectors of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).