The Democratic Window of Opportunity: Evidence from Riots in Sub-Saharan Africa. (June 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Aidt, Toke S.; Leon, Gabriel
• Is Part Of: Journal of conflict resolution. Volume 60:Number 4(2016)
• Page Start: 694
• Page End: 717
• Publication Date: 2016-06
• Subjects: riots -- drought -- transitions -- democracy -- autocracy; War and society -- Periodicals; Peace -- Periodicals; Arbitration (International law) -- Periodicals; 327.16
• DOI: 10.1177/0022002714564014
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0022-0027

Abstract

We show that drought-induced changes in the intensity of riots lead to moves toward democracy in sub-Saharan Africa and that these changes are often a result of concessions made as a result of the riots. This provides evidence that low-intensity conflict can have a substantial short-run impact on democratic change and supports the "window of opportunity" hypothesis: droughts lead to an increase in the threat of conflict, and incumbents often respond by making democratic concessions.