A process model of the understanding of uncertain conditionals. (3rd July 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Kleiter, Gernot D.; Fugard, Andrew J. B.; Pfeifer, Niki
• Is Part Of: Thinking & reasoning. Volume 24:Number 3(2018)
• Page Start: 386
• Page End: 422
• Publication Date: 2018-07-03
• Subjects: Uncertain reasoning -- conditionals -- conditional events -- coherent probabilities -- n-back task; Thought and thinking -- Periodicals; Reasoning (Psychology) -- Periodicals; 153.43
• DOI: 10.1080/13546783.2017.1422542
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1354-6783

Abstract

ABSTRACT: To build a process model of the understanding of conditionals we extract a common core of three semantics of if-then sentences: (a) the conditional event interpretation in the coherencebased probability logic, (b) the discourse processingtheory of Hans Kamp, and (c) the game-theoretical approach of Jaakko Hintikka. The empirical part reports three experiments in which each participant assessed the probability of 52 if-then sentencesin a truth table task. Each experiment included a second task: An n-back task relating the interpretation of conditionals to working memory, a Bayesian bookbag and poker chip task relating the interpretation of conditionals to probability updating, and a probabilistic modus ponens task relating the interpretation of conditionals to a classical inference task. Data analysis shows that the way in which the conditionals are interpreted correlates with each of the supplementary tasks. The results are discussed within the process model proposed in the introduction.