A bumpy road to the top: Statistically defining a peak in oil production. (July 2015)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Warrilow, David
• Is Part Of: Energy policy. Volume 82(2015)
• Page Start: 81
• Page End: 84
• Publication Date: 2015-07
• Subjects: Peak oil -- Post-peak -- Volatility; Energy policy -- Periodicals; Politique énergétique -- Périodiques; Electronic journals; 333.79
• DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2015.03.010
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0301-4215

Abstract

Abstract: Twenty-four countries where oil production is in decline were identified. A simple metric of the volatility of oil production on the upslope of their production curves, called decline as a proportion of pre-peak production (or PPPmax ), was created. PPPmax was determined for the post-peak countries and plotted as a frequency distribution. PPPmax varied from 0–56%, but was skewed toward the lower part of the range (median 6.2%). As global production is determined by the total contribution of production from all countries, the variation in PPPmax will represent the lower and upper bound of the "bumpiness" of global oil production. It also enables a retrospective approximation of the when global oil production is most likely past its peak. Highlights: Oil production is volatile which makes it difficult to determine peak production. A measure of volatility based on oil production figures is described (PPPmax ). A frequency distribution of PPPmax gives insight into national production profiles. PPPmax elucidates global production.