Incidence of childhood onset type 1 diabetes in Western Australia from 1985 to 2016: Evidence for a plateau. Issue 4 (4th January 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Haynes, Aveni; Bulsara, Max K; Jones, Timothy W; Davis, Elizabeth A
• Is Part Of: Pediatric diabetes. Volume 19:Issue 4(2018)
• Page Start: 690
• Page End: 692
• Publication Date: 2018-01-04
• Subjects: Australia -- childhood -- epidemiology -- incidence -- type 1 diabetes mellitus; Diabetes in children -- Periodicals; 616.462
• DOI: 10.1111/pedi.12636
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1399-543X

Abstract

Abstract : Objective: To determine the incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1D) in Western Australia from 2011 to 2016, and to examine the temporal trends between 1985 and 2016. Methods: An observational cohort study was undertaken of all children newly diagnosed with T1D aged 0 to 14 years in Western Australia from 1985 to 2016. Cases were identified from the Western Australian Children's Diabetes Database, a population‐based diabetes register previously estimated to be >99% complete. Annual age‐standardized and age‐ and sex‐specific incidence rates were calculated and the Joinpoint Regression Program used to identify any significant changes in trends over the study period. Results: A total of 2499 cases were included (1272 boys, 1227 girls). The overall mean annual incidence was 19.1/100 000 person years (95% confidence interval, CI: 18.3‐19.8), with no significant difference found between boys and girls. The mean annual incidence of 12.1/100 000 person years (95% CI: 11.1‐13.1) in 0 to 4‐years was significantly lower than that observed in 5 to 9 (21.6/100 000 [95% CI: 20.2‐23.0]) and 10 to 14 (23.5/100 000 [95% CI: 22.1‐25.0]) years. Joinpoint regression analysis identified a significant change in the temporal trend occurring in 2003. From 1985 to 2003, the incidence increased on an average of 3.3% per year (95% CI: 1.9‐4.7). However, from 2003 to 2016, no significant change in the temporal trend occurred (−0.6% per year [95% CI: −2.4‐1.2]). Conclusions: This study provides evidence for a possible plateauing in the incidence of childhood T1D in Western Australia, following a peak in 2003. Ongoing monitoring of the incidence will be essential to determine how temporal trends continue to evolve.