The false consensus effect: A trigger of radicalization in locally unwanted land uses conflicts?. (June 2015)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Mannarini, Terri; Roccato, Michele; Russo, Silvia
• Is Part Of: Journal of environmental psychology. Volume 42(2015)
• Page Start: 76
• Page End: 81
• Publication Date: 2015-06
• Subjects: NIMBY -- LULU -- Environmental conflict -- False consensus -- Protest -- Mobilization; Environmental psychology -- Periodicals; Environment -- Periodicals; Psychology -- Periodicals; 155.905
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvp.2015.03.001
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0272-4944

Abstract

Abstract: We tackled conflicts over locally unwanted land use (LULU) focusing on the false consensus effect (FCE). Through a secondary analysis of data from a representative sample of residents in the district of Turin, Italy, where a high-speed railway (HSR) is to be sited ( N = 1785), we tested whether the FCE mediated the relationship between perceived threat to the location and mobilization against the HSR. Participants tended to overestimate the number of people holding their same opinion. Among opponents of the HSR ( n = 305), the tendency to be liable to the FCE was higher for those who perceived the project as a threat to the location. Moreover, the perception of an alleged consensus based on their own opinion mobilized them to defend their position. Our study suggests that standard approaches to LULU conflicts may benefit from the use of socio-cognitive variables. Strengths and limitations of the study are discussed. Highlights: We used the false consensus effect (FCE) to predict mobilizations in LULU conflicts. Both people in favor and against the work showed the FCE. The FCE depended on perceived threat to the place. The FCE fostered the probability to participate in the mobilization against the work.