A quantitative approach for risk assessment of a ship stuck in ice in Arctic waters. (August 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Fu, Shanshan; Zhang, Di; Montewka, Jakub; Zio, Enrico; Yan, Xinping
• Is Part Of: Safety science. Volume 107(2018)
• Page Start: 145
• Page End: 154
• Publication Date: 2018-08
• Subjects: ET Event Tree -- IE Intermediate Event -- MSC Maritime Safety Committee -- NSR Northern Sea Route -- OE Outcome Event -- IMO International Maritime Organization -- PMCC Product-Moment Correlation Coefficient -- SEQ Sequence number -- TFN Triangular fuzzy number; Arctic waters -- Ship accidents -- Accident scenario analysis -- Ship stuck in ice -- Fuzzy-event tree analysis -- Frank copula; Industrial accidents -- Periodicals; Accident Prevention -- Periodicals; Safety -- Periodicals; Travail -- Accidents -- Périodiques; 363.11
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2017.07.001
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0925-7535

Abstract

Abstract: Arctic waters have historically been regarded as harsh environments owing to their extreme weather conditions and remoteness from land. The advantages of shorter sea routes and hydrocarbon energy exploitation have recently led to increased marine activities in such harsh environments. To ensure safe operation within the area, the potential risks of ship accidents, need to be systematically analyzed, assessed and managed along with the associated uncertainties. The treatment of epistemic uncertainty in the likelihoods of adverse events due to lack of knowledge and information should also be considered. This paper presents a Frank copula-based fuzzy event tree analysis approach to assess the risks of major ship accidents in Arctic waters, taking uncertainty into consideration. The quantitative approach includes four steps, namely, accident scenario modeling by an event tree model, probability and dependence analysis of the associated intermediate events, risk assessment with respect to the consequent outcome events. A major ship accident in Arctic waters - ships stuck in ice, is chosen as a case to interpret the modeling process of the approach proposed. Crews and ships owners can use such approach to defining risk control options that enable optimal risk mitigation. Maritime management may also benefit from better risk assessment.