A Time-Series Analysis of Terrorism: Intervention, Displacement, and Diffusion of Benefits. (7th June 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Hsu, Henda Y.; Vásquez, Bob Edward; McDowall, David
• Is Part Of: Justice quarterly. Volume 35:Number 4(2018)
• Page Start: 557
• Page End: 583
• Publication Date: 2018-06-07
• Subjects: terrorism -- situational crime prevention -- crime displacement -- diffusion of benefits -- vector autoregression; Criminal justice, Administration of -- Periodicals; Criminal justice, Administration of -- United States -- Periodicals; 340.11405
• DOI: 10.1080/07418825.2017.1340501
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0741-8825

Abstract

Abstract : This paper discusses the perception that displacement in terrorism is inevitable; that antiterrorism efforts merely relocate terrorism in some way. Using quarterly time-series data from the Global Terrorism Database (1994–2013) and the vector autoregression framework, we test the following hypothesis: the target-hardening efforts within the United States (US) after September, 11, 2001 reduce attacks on domestic US targets, but increase attacks on US targets abroad. To provide a more comprehensive test, we also provide dynamic impact factors and variance decompositions. The results of this intervention analysis show no support for displacement, and instead provide support for a diffusion-of benefits hypothesis. We also discuss how criminological and especially crime-prevention knowledge can guide and encompass the study of terrorism.