Energy system modelling and GIS to build an Integrated Climate Protection Concept for Gauteng Province, South Africa. (January 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Tomaschek, Jan; Kober, Ralf; Fahl, Ulrich; Lozynskyy, Yuriy
• Is Part Of: Energy policy. Volume 88(2016)
• Page Start: 445
• Page End: 455
• Publication Date: 2016-01
• Subjects: BRT Bus Rapid Transit -- BTL Biomass-to-liquid -- CCS Carbon capture and storage -- CNG Compressed natural gas -- CTL Coal-to-liquid -- GDP Gross domestic product -- GHG Greenhouse gas -- GIES Gauteng Integrated Energy Strategy -- GIS Geographic Information System -- GTL Gas-to-liquid -- HBEFA The Handbook of Emission Factors for Road Transport (Handbuch für Emissionsfaktoren des Strassenverkehrs) for Germany, Switzerland and Austria -- HC Hydrocarbons -- IGCC Integrated gasification combined-cycle -- IPO Implemented Policies scenario -- LCV Light commercial vehicle -- LGL Low carbon province – least-cost scenario under GIES mitigation targets -- LGS Low carbon province – solar province scenario under GIES mitigation targets -- LPG Liquefied petroleum gas -- LRS Low carbon province – GHG emissions as "required by science"-scenario in the LTMS -- LTMS Long-term Mitigation Strategies -- MATSim Multi-Agent Transport Simulation -- NATIS National Traffic Information System of South Africa -- NHTS National Household Travel Survey -- NMHC Non-methane hydrocarbons -- PM Particulate matter -- RES Reference Energy System -- REIPPP Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement -- SWH Solar Water Heater -- TEMT Transport Emissions Modelling Tool -- TIMES The Integrated Markal-EFOM System -- TIMES-GEECO TIMES-Gauteng Energy and Emissions Cost Optimisation -- TTW Tank-to-wheel -- VDF Volume-delay function; Energy system modelling -- TIMES -- Transport emission inventory -- GIS -- Planning tool; Energy policy -- Periodicals; Politique énergétique -- Périodiques; Electronic journals; 333.79
• DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2015.10.041
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0301-4215

Abstract

Abstract: South Africa and specifically its economically dominant province of Gauteng aim to reduce their influence on climate change. Especially the transport sector is seen as one of the key drivers of future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper describes the methodology used to combine the application of two models in order to provide a basis for informed policy recommendation for GHG mitigation. The TEMT model provides real world emission factors adapted to local conditions in Gauteng for numerous vehicle technology concepts. Those data feed into the TIMES-GEECO energy system model which identifies future technology use for different alternative scenarios. Finally, the scenario results are illustrated spatially using a GIS programme. The results of the scenario analysis show that under implemented policies GHG emissions in Gauteng are likely to increase substantially. Pollutant emissions are currently high as a result of a comparably old vehicle fleet. The spatial display of these results shows where the traffic network is concentrated and the location of so-called emission hot-spots. Energy efficient policies for the transport sector of Gauteng can achieve a significant reduction of emissions and energy consumption. Alternative powertrains and the use of locally produced biofuels can play a significant role in such policies. Highlights: Two models to assess the transport sector have been developed. The methodology covers the energy system and locational information. Application to Gauteng to provide input for a Climate Protection Concept. Energy efficient polices will help to significantly reduce transport emissions. Local renewable resources and efficient powertrains should be part of this policy.