An Age of Stagnation?. (June 2014)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Aguilar-Millan, Stephen; Swanson, Jason; Burgess-MacIntosh, Kate; Schlehuber, Laura
• Is Part Of: World future review. Volume 6:Number 2(2014)
• Page Start: 120
• Page End: 129
• Publication Date: 2014-06
• Subjects: growth -- global economy -- recession -- business as usual -- sustainability; Forecasting -- Periodicals; Forecasting -- Study and teaching -- Periodicals; Social prediction -- Periodicals; Social indicators -- Periodicals; 303.49
• DOI: 10.1177/1946756714533205
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1946-7567

Abstract

Much of the policy focus since the onset of the Great Recession in 2008 has been based upon a return of the global economy to "business-as-usual." It is assumed that it is both possible and desirable to return to the pre-recession trajectory of the global economy, despite such a growth path leading to an imbalanced global economy that was neither sustainable from an environmental perspective nor equitable from the perspective of supporting a fair society. Policy makers have failed in this objective. It may be that governments have simply been unsuccessful. It is also possible that the structural components of the global economy have changed in such a way that a return to the pre-recession growth path is not possible. This article is an investigation into this possibility. It will consider three elements—debt, technology, and demography—that argue that we have entered a sustained period of sluggish economic growth by asking three core questions: (1) Will the rebalancing of the global economy undermine the ability of economies to restore prosperity? (2) Have the long-term trends in innovation reached a moment of pause, to delay future growth prospects? (3) Are the demographic trends facing the world likely to act as a brake upon future economic growth? We then ask the question of whether or not this is entirely undesirable before taking the view that it provides a good opportunity to switch into a low carbon, low-growth economy if the fundamental issues of inequality and fairness can be addressed. If we are to have a prolonged period of subdued prosperity, then that affords us an opportunity to devise a structure that is both kind to the planet and equitable to its inhabitants. To misquote Churchill, it would be a shame to let a perfectly good recession go to waste.