China's Great Leap Forward: An estimate of total and additional excess male birth losses. (February 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Grech, Victor
• Is Part Of: Early human development. Volume 117(2018)
• Page Start: 20
• Page End: 21
• Publication Date: 2018-02
• Subjects: Fetus -- Periodicals; Neonatology -- Periodicals; Prenatal influences -- Periodicals; 612.65
• DOI: 10.1016/j.earlhumdev.2017.12.004
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0378-3782

Abstract

Abstract: Introduction: Stress reduces the male to female ratio at birth (M/T). China's Great Leap Forward (11/1957–1/1961) had disastrous consequences with a catastrophic national famine that lasted between 1959 and 1961. This resulted in a reduction in births and an additional male birth deficit. This study was carried out in order to estimate the total pregnancy losses and M/T, along with these value's perinatal mortality rates equivalents. Methods: Estimated M/T and births for 1956–61 and for the aggregates of 1956–58 and 1959–61 were calculated. Expected values for the latter period were also estimated. Results: There was a sharp decline in total births after 1958 as well as a reduction in M/T. There were an estimated 18, 286, 000 less births in 1959–61 than anticipated (chi = 2147, p < 0.0001). Based on M/T for the period 1956–8, for the 42, 318, 000 births observed in 1959–61, with an expected M/T (0.5246 ≡ 52.5%), there was an additional deficit of 196, 221 male births (chi = 1823, p < 0.0001). The total birth deficit was circa 301.7 per 1000 with an additional male deficit of 3.2 per 1000. Discussion: The perinatal mortality rate is an important public health indicator and is expected to be ≈ 6/1000-these values greatly exceed perinatal mortality figures. Political decisions should be taken with caution since they can effect enormous impacts on history and on human biology, including massive effects on births and M/T. MeSH: Birth rate/*trends; Sex ratio; China; Infant, newborn; Starvation. Highlights: China's Great Leap forwards caused widespread starvation (1959–61). Stress reduces the sex ratio at birth due to excess male fetal losses. There was a sharp decline in total births and particularly in male births. The total birth deficit was circa 301.7 per 1000. There was an additional male deficit of 3.2 per 1000.