Decomposing Forecasting: The Salience-Assessment-Weighting (SAW) Model. (October 2014)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Rosenzweig, Emily; Critcher, Clayton R.
• Is Part Of: Current directions in psychological science. Volume 23:Number 5(2014:Oct.)
• Page Start: 368
• Page End: 373
• Publication Date: 2014-10
• Subjects: forecasting -- optimism -- accuracy -- judgment and decision making; Psychology -- Periodicals; 150
• DOI: 10.1177/0963721414540300
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0963-7214

Abstract

The act of forecasting one's behavior or performance is both commonplace and consequential, but it is also difficult. Previous research has identified a host of systematic forecasting errors. We suggest that existing findings can be better synthesized, and future research can proceed in a less piecemeal fashion, through the introduction of a general model that describes how forecasts unfold. In our salience-assessment-weighting (SAW) model, we outline three steps that describe how people translate information at their disposal into an accurate forecast of a future outcome. Dimensions potentially relevant to the outcome become salient ; one's standing on that dimension must be accurately assessed ; and one must appropriately weight the importance of that dimension to translate it into a forecast. We illustrate how this SAW model is helpful in unifying previous research findings, identifying how and when forecasts go astray, and suggesting questions for future research.