Assessment and correction of BCC_CSM's performance in capturing leading modes of summer precipitation over North Asia. (7th November 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Gong, Zhiqiang; Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar; Qiao, Shaobo; Hu, Po; Feng, Guolin
• Is Part Of: International journal of climatology. Volume 38:Number 5(2018)
• Page Start: 2201
• Page End: 2214
• Publication Date: 2017-11-07
• Subjects: leading modes -- assessment -- prediction -- dynamic‐statistic combined correction; Climatology -- Periodicals; Climat -- Périodiques; Climatologie -- Périodiques; 551.605
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.5327
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0899-8418

Abstract

ABSTRACT: This article examines the ability of Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM) in demonstrating the prediction accuracy and the leading modes of the summer precipitation over North Asia (NA). A dynamic‐statistic combined approach for improving the prediction accuracy and the prediction of the leading modes of the summer precipitation over NA is proposed. Our results show that the BCC_CSM can capture part of the spatial anomaly features of the first two leading modes of NA summer precipitation. Moreover, BCC_CSM regains relationships such that the first and second mode of the empirical orthogonal function (EOF1 and EOF2) of NA summer precipitation, respectively, corresponds to the development of the El Niño and La Niña conditions in the tropical East Pacific. Nevertheless, BCC_CSM exhibits limited prediction skill over most part of NA and presents a deficiency in reproducing the EOF1's and EOF2's spatial pattern over central NA and EOF2's interannual variability. This can be attributed as the possible reasons why the model is unable to capture the correct relationships among the basic climate elements over the central NA, lacks in its ability to reproduce a consistent zonal atmospheric pattern over NA, and has bias in predicting the relevant Sea Surface Temperature (SST) modes over the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. Based on the proposed dynamic‐statistic combined correction approach, compared with the leading modes of BCC_CSM's original prediction, anomaly correlation coefficients of corrected EOF1/EOF2 with the tropical Indian Ocean SST are improved from 0.18/0.36 to 0.51/0.62. Hence, the proposed correction approach suggests that the BCC_CSM's prediction skill for the summer precipitation prediction over NA and its ability to capture the dominant modes could be certainly improved by choosing proper historical analogue information. Abstract : Beijing Climate Center has been working on developing the climate system model (BCC_CSM) captures part of the spatial anomaly features of the first two leading modes of (NA) summer precipitation; BCC_CSM has shortcomings in reproducing the relationships among the basic atmospheric elements over the central NA, and shows bias in predicting the SST modes over the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean; A dynamic‐statistic combined correction approach can be used to improve the BCC_CSM's ability to capture the dominant modes of NA summer precipitation by selecting proper historical analogue information. Spatial pattern of the first and second mode of the empirical orthogonal function (EOF1 and EOF2) for summer precipitation anomalies over NA during 1991–2015 for (a, b) CPC (Climate Prediction Center, National Weather Service, US) merged analysis of precipitation and (c, d) BCC_CSM prediction, and (e, f) corrected prediction based on Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST).