Shortest path or anchor-based route choice: a large-scale empirical analysis of minicab routing in London. (February 2015)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Manley, E.J.; Addison, J.D.; Cheng, T.
• Is Part Of: Journal of transport geography. Volume 43(2015)
• Page Start: 123
• Page End: 139
• Publication Date: 2015-02
• Subjects: Route choice -- Spatial cognition -- Urban modelling -- Urban transportation -- Data analysis; Transportation -- Periodicals; Telecommunication -- Periodicals; Transport -- Périodiques; Télécommunications -- Périodiques; Telecommunication; Transportation; Periodicals; 388
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2015.01.006
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0966-6923

Abstract

Highlights: Analysis of routing data shows shortest path models poorly predict actual behaviour. Routes planned and structured disproportionately around a few core locations. Choice process causes asymmetric distribution of routes, split by direction of travel. Subsidiary choices at minor road junctions lead to localised splits in traffic flow. Framework introduced for integration of identified processes in route choice models. Abstract: Understanding and modelling route choice behaviour is central to predicting the formation and propagation of urban road congestion. Yet within conventional literature disagreements persist around the nature of route choice behaviour, and how it should be modelled. In this paper, both the shortest path and anchor-based perspectives on route choice behaviour are explored through an empirical analysis of nearly 700, 000 minicab routes across London, United Kingdom. In the first set of analyses, the degree of similarity between observed routes and possible shortest paths is established. Shortest paths demonstrate poor performance in predicting both observed route choice and characteristics. The second stage of analysis explores the influence of specific urban features, named anchors, in route choice. These analyses show that certain features attract more route choices than would be expected were individuals choosing route based on cost minimisation alone. Instead, the results indicate that major urban features form the basis of route choice planning – being selected disproportionately more often, and causing asymmetry in route choice volumes by direction of travel. At a finer scale, decisions made at minor road features are furthermore demonstrated to influence routing patterns. The results indicate a need to revisit the basis of how routes are modelled, shifting from the shortest path perspective to a mechanism structured around urban features. In concluding, the main trends are synthesised within an initial framework for route choice modelling, and presents potential extensions of this research.