How population size affects party systems and cabinet duration. (July 2014)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Sikk, Allan; Taagepera, Rein
• Is Part Of: Party politics. Volume 20:Number 4(2014:Jul.)
• Page Start: 591
• Page End: 603
• Publication Date: 2014-07
• Subjects: country size -- electoral change -- electoral systems -- party systems -- predictive models; Political parties -- Periodicals; Political science -- Periodicals; 324.2
• DOI: 10.1177/1354068811436068
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1354-0688

Abstract

This study develops and tests theoretical formulas for linking country size and party system characteristics. For countries using one-seat electoral districts or nationwide districts, the averages of the largest seat-share, effective number of assembly parties and mean duration of cabinets can be predicted based solely on population. For countries allocating seats by PR in multi-seat districts, the averages of these characteristics can be predicted based on population and district magnitude. We show that first-past-the-post countries of less than one million tend to have highly dominant largest parties and one-and-a-half party assemblies, rather than a balance of two parties. For larger countries, and PR countries of any size, population is not destiny, as far as party system is concerned.