A Coincidence Analysis of a Causal Chain: The Swiss Minaret Vote. (May 2014)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Baumgartner, Michael; Epple, Ruedi
• Is Part Of: Sociological methods & research. Volume 43:Number 2(2014:May)
• Page Start: 280
• Page End: 312
• Publication Date: 2014-05
• Subjects: causal modeling -- Swiss minaret vote -- coincidence analysis (CNA) -- qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) -- causal chains; Sociology -- Research -- Periodicals; Sociology -- Methodology -- Periodicals; 301.072
• DOI: 10.1177/0049124113502948
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0049-1241

Abstract

This article applies coincidence analysis ( CNA ), a Boolean method of causal analysis presented in Baumgartner (2009a), to configurational data on the Swiss minaret vote of 2009. CNA is related to qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) (Ragin 2008), but contrary to the latter does not minimize sufficient and necessary conditions by means of Quine–McCluskey optimization, but based on its own custom built optimization algorithm. The latter greatly facilitates the analysis of data featuring chain-like causal dependencies among the conditions of an ultimate outcome—as can be found in the data on the Swiss minaret vote. Apart from providing a model of the causal structure behind the Swiss minaret vote, we show that a CNA of that data is preferable over a QCA.