State repression and post-conflict peace failure. Issue 1 (2nd January 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Keels, Eric; Nichols, Angela D.
• Is Part Of: Conflict, security & development. Volume 18:Issue 1(2018)
• Page Start: 17
• Page End: 37
• Publication Date: 2018-01-02
• Subjects: Human rights -- state behaviour -- civil war -- peace -- post-conflict -- repression; Security, International -- Periodicals; Pacific settlement of international disputes -- Periodicals; Economic development -- Periodicals; World politics -- 1989- -- Periodicals; 322.5
• DOI: 10.1080/14678802.2017.1420313
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1467-8802

Abstract

Abstract: This paper provides evidence that state repression is a strong predictor of peace failure following civil war. Existing literature fails to examine the possibility that more repressive states are even less likely than their counterparts to escape the 'conflict trap'. We argue that when states use repressive tactics to achieve their objectives, it signals to the broader population that the state cannot be trusted; and the regime does not believe their rule is to be questioned. These signals polarise citizens into new or existing rebel factions thereby increasing the risk of another civil war. We test our theory using event history analysis. Our results are robust to a series of statistical models and demonstrate that in the tenuous post-conflict environment states that use repression to police their populous experience shorter periods of peace.