Early Season NFL Over/Under Bias. (April 2014)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: DiFilippo, Michael; Krieger, Kevin; Davis, Justin; Fodor, Andy
• Is Part Of: Journal of sports economics. Volume 15:Number 2(2014:Apr.)
• Page Start: 201
• Page End: 211
• Publication Date: 2014-04
• Subjects: sports wagering -- efficient markets -- NFL -- betting bias; Sports -- Economic aspects -- Periodicals; Sports administration -- Periodicals; 338.47796
• DOI: 10.1177/1527002512454544
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1527-0025

Abstract

Popular wisdom regarding athletics is that offenses are at a relative disadvantage in the early portion of seasons. The authors present evidence that this anecdotal belief holds true over the 2000-2010 National Football League (NFL) seasons. This is reflected in lower offensive yardage, fewer first downs, and fewer points scored. While total points scored are significantly lower in Week 1 of NFL seasons, bookmakers fail to reduce the total lines posted on these games. The authors find a strategy betting under total lines of all Week 1 games over the 2000-2010 NFL seasons yields a statistically significant return of 13.6% per game.