US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports: Boom or bust for the global climate?. (15th December 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Gilbert, Alexander Q.; Sovacool, Benjamin K.
• Is Part Of: Energy. Volume 141(2017)
• Page Start: 1671
• Page End: 1680
• Publication Date: 2017-12-15
• Subjects: Liquefied natural gas (LNG) -- Energy exports -- Methane leakage -- Lifecycle analysis; Power resources -- Periodicals; Power (Mechanics) -- Periodicals; Energy consumption -- Periodicals; 333.7905
• DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2017.11.098
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0360-5442

Abstract

Abstract: Due to surging natural gas production, the United States is now a growing exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to overseas destinations. However, the potential greenhouse gas implications from increased US natural gas remain unclear. Through a hybrid lifecycle energy strategy analysis, we investigate potential greenhouse gas scenarios of US LNG exports to Asia, the largest source of global LNG demand. We find that the climate impacts of US exports to China, Japan, India, and South Korea could vary tremendously. Annual global lifecycle emissions range from −32 to +63 million metric tons CO2 e per billion cubic feet (Bcf) per day of exports. Despite this range, emissions are not likely to decrease and may increase significantly due to greater global energy consumption, higher emissions in the US, and methane leakage. However, international climate obligations are a critical uncertainty underlying all emissions estimates. Our results indicate the need for further research into quantifying the climate impacts of LNG exports, and energy exports more generally. Highlights: US LNG exports could have large GHG impacts. Positive or negative depending on replacement scenarios. Domestic and international market impacts critical.