A systems approach to risk and resilience analysis in the woody-biomass sector: A case study of the failure of the South African wood pellet industry. (January 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Bowd, Rebecca; Quinn, Nevil W.; Kotze, Donovan C.; Guilfoyle, Michael J.
• Is Part Of: Biomass and bioenergy. Volume 108(2018)
• Page Start: 126
• Page End: 137
• Publication Date: 2018-01
• Subjects: South Africa -- Woody-biomass -- Social-ecological system -- Resilience -- Risk -- Framework; Biomass energy -- Periodicals; Biomass -- Periodicals; Energy-Generating Resources -- Periodicals; Bioénergie -- Périodiques; 333.9539
• DOI: 10.1016/j.biombioe.2017.10.032
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0961-9534

Abstract

Abstract: Currently more than 600 million of the 800 million people in SSA are without electricity, and it is estimated that an additional 2500 GW of power is required by 2030. Although the woody-biomass market in the developed world is relatively mature, only four woody-biomass plants in SSA have been established, all of which were closed by 2013. With its affordable labour, favourable climate and well-established forestry and agricultural sectors, South Africa appears to have the potential for a successful woody-biomass industry. This paper documents a first attempt at analysing why these plants failed. It aims to contextualise the potential role of a sustainable woody-biomass sector in South Africa, through firstly developing a SES-based analytical framework and secondly, using this to undertake a retrospective resilience-based risk assessment of the four former woody-biomass pellet plants in order to identify strategies for increasing the resilience of the industry. The SES-based framework advances previous theory, which usually focuses on natural resources and their supply, by introducing a production process (with inputs and outputs), internal business dynamics and ecological variable interactions. The risk assessment can be used at a broad level to highlight important aspects which should be considered during feasibility assessments for new plants. Further work is proposed to focus on splitting the social-ecological system at different scales for further analysis, and to investigate the long-term ecological impacts of woody-biomass utilisation. Highlights: Applying SES theory in relation to the woody-biomass sector generated beneficial insights, especially at a landscape level. The proposed risk assessment approach can identify the key aspects which should be considered when establishing a new plant. There is a need for further investigation into the long-term ecological risks under South African conditions. Local market development should be pursued as it will address many economic risks associated with the industry.