Assessing Production Assurance in a Natural Gas Network by Using Scenario Generation and Optimization. (2015)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Midthun, Kjetil; Hellemo, Lars; Kaut, Michal; Werner, Adrian
• Is Part Of: Energy procedia. Volume 64(2015)
• Page Start: 120
• Page End: 129
• Publication Date: 2015
• Subjects: Natural gas -- scenario generation -- copula -- scenario analysis -- security of supply -- optimization; Power resources -- Congresses; Power resources -- Periodicals; Power resources; Conference proceedings; Periodicals; 333.7905
• DOI: 10.1016/j.egypro.2015.01.015
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1876-6102

Abstract

Abstract: We discuss how an optimization model can be used together with a scenario generation procedure to provide valuable analysis for companies operating in a natural gas value chain. The solution time of the optimization model can be considerable for some model specifications, so a large scale sampling from the distribution of the uncertain parameters would lead to intractable solution times. By using a scenario generation procedure we can, however, drastically reduce the required amount of analyses necessary to run. We discuss two different procedures in this paper: moment-matching and copulas. We also demonstrate the application on a gas transportation network similar to the one on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. The data used in the analysis are synthetic, but with realistic values.