China's Belt and Road Initiative: Can Europe Expect Trade Gains?. Issue 6 (16th November 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Herrero, Alicia Garcia; Xu, Jianwei
• Is Part Of: China & world economy. Volume 25:Issue 6(2017)
• Page Start: 84
• Page End: 99
• Publication Date: 2017-11-16
• Subjects: China -- Belt and Road Initiative -- infrastructure -- international economic system; F02 -- O19 -- O53; Economic indicators -- China -- Periodicals; China -- Economic conditions -- 1976- -- Periodicals; China -- Economic policy -- 1976- -- Periodicals; China -- Commerce -- Periodicals; Economics -- China -- Periodicals; 337.951
• DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12222
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1671-2234

Abstract

Abstract: The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) aims to improve cross‐border infrastructure to reduce transportation costs across a massive geographical area between China and Europe. We estimate how much trade might be created among Belt and Road (B&R) countries as a consequence of the reduction in transportation costs (both railway and maritime) and find that European Union countries, especially landlocked countries, will benefit considerably. This is also true for Eastern Europe and Central Asia and, to a lesser extent, South‐East Asia. In contrast, if China were to seek to establish a free trade area within the B&R region, EU member states would benefit less, while Asia would benefit more. Xi Jinping's current vision for the B&R, centered on improving transport infrastructure, is advantageous for Europe as far as trade creation is concerned.