A Study of the Dengue Epidemic and Meteorological Factors in Guangzhou, China, by Using a Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression Model. (January 2014)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Wang, Chenggang; Jiang, Baofa; Fan, Jingchun; Wang, Furong; Liu, Qiyong
• Is Part Of: Asia-Pacific journal of public health. Volume 26:Number 1(2014:Jan.)
• Page Start: 48
• Page End: 57
• Publication Date: 2014-01
• Subjects: public health -- communicable diseases -- epidemiology -- climate change -- occupational and environmental health; Public health -- Pacific Area -- Periodicals; Public health -- Asia -- Periodicals; 362.1095
• DOI: 10.1177/1010539513490195
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1010-5395

Abstract

The aim of this study is to develop a model that correctly identifies and quantifies the relationship between dengue and meteorological factors in Guangzhou, China. By cross-correlation analysis, meteorological variables and their lag effects were determined. According to the epidemic characteristics of dengue in Guangzhou, those statistically significant variables were modeled by a zero-inflated Poisson regression model. The number of dengue cases and minimum temperature at 1-month lag, along with average relative humidity at 0- to 1-month lag were all positively correlated with the prevalence of dengue fever, whereas wind velocity and temperature in the same month along with rainfall at 2 months' lag showed negative association with dengue incidence. Minimum temperature at 1-month lag and wind velocity in the same month had a greater impact on the dengue epidemic than other variables in Guangzhou.