Bi-logistic model for disease dynamics caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Russia. Issue 9 (13th September 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Lavrova, Anastasia I.; Postnikov, Eugene B.; Manicheva, Olga A.; Vishnevsky, Boris I.
• Is Part Of: Royal Society open science. Volume 4:Issue 9(2017)
• Publication Date: 2017-09-13
• Subjects: Mycobacterium tuberculosis -- virulence -- mixed subpopulations -- compartmental model; Science -- Periodicals; 500
• DOI: 10.1098/rsos.171033
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2054-5703

Abstract

Abstract : In this work, we explore epidemiological dynamics by the example of tuberculosis in Russian Federation. It has been shown that the epidemiological dynamics correlates linearly with the virulence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis during the period 1987–2012. To construct an appropriate model, we have analysed (using LogLet decomposition method) epidemiological World Health Organization (WHO) data (period 1980–2014) and obtained, as result of their integration, a curve approximated by a bi-logistic function. This fact allows a subdivision of the whole population into parts, each of them satisfies the Verhulst-like models with different constant virulences introduced into each subsystem separately. Such a subdivision could be interconnected with the heterogeneous structure of mycobacterial population that has a high ability of adaptation to the host and strong mutability.