Energy modeling approach to the global energy-mineral nexus: A first look at metal requirements and the 2 °C target. (1st December 2017) - Tokimatsu, Koji
Highlights: Nexus approach was applied using an energy model to estimate metal requirements. Two original energy scenarios were developed: "Coal & Nuclear" and "Gas & Renewable". CCS was expanded in both scenarios, with either nuclear or PV in the two scenarios. The metal requirement to meet the 2 °C target in the both scenarios was estimated. Concerns exist that some metals might not meet requirements for PV in "Gas & Renewable". Abstract: Stringent GHG emission cuts are required for meeting the so-called Paris Agreement. Due to higher metal intensities of renewable energy, such a transition must also include required amounts of metal. This study estimates the metal requirement for various power generation technology mix scenarios by using a cost-minimizing energy model on the global energy-mineral nexus. Two energy and climate scenarios were developed to represent primarily economic efficiency and environmental performance, respectively, under climate policies with net zero emissions satisfying the 2 °C target, and without any constraints (i.e. Business As Usual). Based on the future additions of various power generation technologies, metal requirements and cumulative production were estimated in zero-order and conservative scenarios, to compare with production levels in 2015 and reserves. The results suggest that there may be cause for concern about metal requirement and/or availability in PV, nuclear, and (Plug-in Hybrid) Electric Vehicles in 2100. For PV in the Gas & Ren scenario, most of the metal usage exceeded their production levels and the reserves. It is concluded that mineral availability and production rates should be given greater attention for planning and modeling of sustainable energy systems.