Wider economic impacts of heavy flooding in Germany: a non-linear programming approach. Issue 4 (2nd October 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Oosterhaven, Jan; Többen, Johannes
• Is Part Of: Spatial economic analysis. Volume 12:Issue 4(2017)
• Page Start: 404
• Page End: 428
• Publication Date: 2017-10-02
• Subjects: disaster analysis -- interregional trade -- multiregional supply-use table -- information gain; 灾害分析 -- 跨区域贸易 -- 多重区域供给—使用表 -- 信息取得; analyse des désastres -- commerce inter-régional -- tableau offre – utilisation plurirégional -- gains d'informations; análisis de desastres -- comercio interregional -- tabla de origen y destino multirregional -- ganancia de información; C60 -- D57 -- Q54 -- R15; Space in economics -- Periodicals; Economic geography -- Periodicals; Space in economics -- Econometric models -- Periodicals; Urbanization -- Periodicals; Espace (Économie politique) -- Périodiques; Économétrie -- Périodiques; Géographie économique -- Périodiques; Économie industrielle -- Périodiques; Économie du travail -- Périodiques; Économie urbaine -- Périodiques; Politique économique -- Périodiques; Relations économiques internationales -- Périodiques; 330.9
• DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2017.1300680
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1742-1772

Abstract

ABSTRACT: Wider economic impacts of heavy flooding in Germany: a non-linear programming approach. Spatial Economic Analysis . This paper further develops a new methodology to estimate the wider, indirect impacts of major disasters, and applies it to the 2013 heavy flooding of southern and eastern Germany. We model the attempts of economic actors to continue their usual activities, as closely as possible, by minimizing the information gain between the pre- and post-disaster pattern of economic transactions of the economy at hand. Findings show that government support of local final demand substantially reduces the indirect losses of the floods, while having a disaster at the top of the business cycle increases them. Moreover, we find that assuming fixed trade origin shares and fixed industry market shares, as in all multiregional input–output models, leads to implausibly large estimates of the indirect losses.