A household SIR epidemic model incorporating time of day effects. (21st June 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Neal, Peter
• Is Part Of: Journal of applied probability. Volume 53:Number 2(2016)
• Page Start: 489
• Page End: 501
• Publication Date: 2016-06-21
• Subjects: Birth–death process, -- branching process, -- households SIR epidemic model; Primary 92D30, -- Secondary 60J80, -- 60G10; 519.2
• DOI: 10.1017/jpr.2016.15
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0021-9002

Abstract

Abstract: During the course of a day an individual typically mixes with different groups of individuals. Epidemic models incorporating population structure with individuals being able to infect different groups of individuals have received extensive attention in the literature. However, almost exclusively the models assume that individuals are able to simultaneously infect members of all groups, whereas in reality individuals will typically only be able to infect members of any group they currently reside in. In this paper we develop a model where individuals move between a community and their household during the course of the day, only infecting within their current group. By defining a novel branching process approximation with an explicit expression for the probability generating function of the offspring distribution, we are able to derive the probability of a major epidemic outbreak.