Climate change beliefs and perceptions of agricultural risks: An application of the exchangeability method. (November 2015)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Menapace, Luisa; Colson, Gregory; Raffaelli, Roberta
• Is Part Of: Global environmental change. Volume 35(2015:Nov.)
• Page Start: 70
• Page End: 81
• Publication Date: 2015-11
• Subjects: Q10; Climate change -- Exchangeability method -- Subjective risk perceptions; Environmental policy -- Periodicals; Human ecology -- Periodicals; Nature -- Effect of human beings on -- Periodicals; Environment -- Periodicals; Environnement -- Politique gouvernementale -- Périodiques; Écologie humaine -- Périodiques; Homme -- Influence sur la nature -- Périodiques; Environmental policy; Human ecology; Nature -- Effect of human beings on; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 333.7
• DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.07.005
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0959-3780

Abstract

Highlights: We assess Italian apple and grape farmers' risk perceptions of crop losses. Short- and long-run risk perceptions are elicited via the exchangeability method. Farmers expect crop losses due to hail and apple dieback to increase. Climate change believers expect a greater increase in risk compared to non-believers. Data suggests that climate change beliefs affect farmers' risk perceptions. Abstract: Using the exchangeability method, we elicit Italian farmers' short- and long-run perceptions of agricultural risks related to climate change. We consider four sources of crop loss risk: powdery mildew and hail for grape growers and apple dieback and hail for apple farmers. We find that perceived crop loss risks tend to be greater in the long run than in the short run. Controlling for a variety of factors (past experiences with crop losses, farming experience, numeracy, interactions with other producers, and farm characteristics), we identify climate change beliefs as a critical factor explaining the short- vs. long-run difference in risk perceptions: those who believe in climate change project larger future crop losses. Additionally, prior direct experience with crop losses helps explain why certain farmers perceive greater risk. Our results suggest that outreach services should offer field days providing first-hand exposure to crop losses and adopt a segmented approach that considers farmers' climate change beliefs.