A Model for Predicting the Future Risk of Incident Erosive Esophagitis in an Asymptomatic Population Undergoing Regular Check-ups. Issue 4 (January 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Kang, Soo Hoon; Lim, Yaeji; Lee, Hyuk; Kim, Joungyoun; Chi, Sangah; Min, Yang Won; Min, Byung-Hoon; Lee, Jun Haeng; Son, Hee Jung; Ryu, Seungho; Rhee, Poong-Lyul; Kim, Jae J.
• Editors: Rantanen., Tuomo
• Is Part Of: Medicine. Volume 95:Issue 4(2016)
• Page Start: e2591
• Publication Date: 2016-01
• Subjects: Medicine -- Periodicals; Medicine -- Periodicals; Médecine -- Périodiques; Geneeskunde; Medicine; Periodicals; Periodicals; 610.5
• DOI: 10.1097/MD.0000000000002591
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0025-7974

Abstract

Abstract : Abstract: Erosive esophagitis is a major risk factor for Barrett esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma. Information regarding the putative risk factors for developing erosive esophagitis is considerably heterogeneous; thus, a risk model is required to clinically predict the incidence of erosive esophagitis. This study was to derive and validate a predictive model for the incidence of developing erosive esophagitis after negative index endoscopy in a population subjected to routine health check-ups. This retrospective cohort study of health check-ups included 11, 535 patients who underwent repeated screening endoscopy after >3 years from a negative index endoscopy. We used logistic regression analysis to predict the incidence of erosive esophagitis, and a Simple Prediction of Erosive Esophagitis Development score for risk assessment was developed and internally validated using the split-sample approach. The development and validation cohorts included 5765 patients (675 with erosive esophagitis [11.7%]) and 5770 patients (670 with erosive esophagitis [11.6%]), respectively. The final model included sex, smoking behavior, body mass index, hypertension, and the triglyceride level as variables. This model predicted 667 cases of erosive esophagitis, yielding an expected-to-observed ratio of 1.00 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.92–1.07). A simplified 5-item risk scoring system based on coefficients was developed, with a risk of erosive esophagitis of 6.2% (95% CI, 5.2–7.1) for the low-risk group (score ≤2), 15.1% (95% CI, 13.5–16.6) for the intermediate-risk group (score ≤3, 4), and 18.2% (95% CI, 15.2–21.3) for the high-risk group (score ≥5). The discriminative performance of the risk-prediction score was consistent in the derivation cohort and validation cohort (c-statistics 0.68 and 0.64, respectively); the calibration was good (Brier score 0.099 and 0.1, respectively). In conclusion, a simple risk-scoring model using putative risk factors can predict the future incidence of developing erosive esophagitis in asymptomatic populations.