Risk analysis of the EASA minimum fuel requirements considering the ACARE-defined safety target. (October 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Drees, Ludwig; Mueller, Manfred; Schmidt-Moll, Carsten; Gontar, Patrick; Zwirglmaier, Kilian; Wang, Chong; Bengler, Klaus; Holzapfel, Florian; Straub, Daniel
• Is Part Of: Journal of air transport management. Volume 65(2017)
• Page Start: 1
• Page End: 10
• Publication Date: 2017-10
• Subjects: Final reserve fuel -- Accident probability -- Aviation safety -- Safety management -- Procedure handling -- Crew performance; Airlines -- Management -- Periodicals; Aeronautics, Commercial -- Management -- Periodicals; 387.7068
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2017.07.003
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0969-6997

Abstract

Abstract: We present the results of flight simulator experiments (60 runs) with randomly selected airline pilots under realistic operational conditions and discuss them in light of current fuel regulations and potential fuel starvation. The experiments were conducted to assess flight crew performance in handling complex technical malfunctions including decision-making in fourth-generation jet aircraft. Our analysis shows that the current fuel requirements of the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) are not sufficient to guarantee the safety target of the Advisory Council for Aviation Research and Innovation in Europe (ACARE), which is less than one accident in 10 million flights. To comply with this safety target, we recommend increasing the Final Reserve Fuel from 30 min to 45 min for jet aircraft. The minimum dispatched fuel upon landing should be at least 1 h. Highlights: To achieve the ACARE-defined safety target for Europe, the probability of a single accident type must be in the order of 10 −9 . A complex simulator scenario has shown an accident rate of 10 −1 . Increasing Final Reserve Fuel from 30 min to 45 min would reduce the current probability of an accident due to a complex technical failure scenario by 90%. The additional costs for increasing Final Reserve Fuel from 30 min to 45 min are equal to the risk reduction.