Weather and international price shocks on food prices in the developing world. (November 2015)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Brown, Molly E.; Kshirsagar, Varun
• Is Part Of: Global environmental change. Volume 35(2015:Nov.)
• Page Start: 31
• Page End: 40
• Publication Date: 2015-11
• Subjects: Climate change -- Food security -- Food prices -- NDVI; Environmental policy -- Periodicals; Human ecology -- Periodicals; Nature -- Effect of human beings on -- Periodicals; Environment -- Periodicals; Environnement -- Politique gouvernementale -- Périodiques; Écologie humaine -- Périodiques; Homme -- Influence sur la nature -- Périodiques; Environmental policy; Human ecology; Nature -- Effect of human beings on; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 333.7
• DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.08.003
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0959-3780

Abstract

Highlights: We model the impact of weather disturbances on local food affordability. Food prices from 554 local markets in 51 countries from 2008 and 2012 were examined. Almost 20% of local market prices were affected by domestic weather disturbances. The impact of international commodity prices on food affordability was also examined. Abstract: In the context of a changing climate, there is an urgent need to better understand the impact that weather disturbances have on food affordability in the developing world. While the influence of international markets on local food markets has received considerable attention, in contrast, the potential influence of weather disturbances on local food markets has received much less attention. In fact, local weather disturbances may have an adverse impact on the poorest households in developing countries. Here we quantify the short-run impact of both weather disturbances as well as international price changes on monthly food prices across 554 local commodity markets in 51 countries during the period between 2008 and 2012. We find that almost 20% of local market prices were affected by domestic weather disturbances in the short run, 9% by international price changes and 4% by both domestic weather disturbances and international price changes during the period. An improved understanding of the magnitude and relative importance of weather disturbances and international price changes on rural economies will inform public policies that are designed to mitigate the impact of adverse weather disturbances.