Delayed effect of Arctic stratospheric ozone on tropical rainfall. (17th October 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Xie, Fei; Zhang, Jiankai; Sang, Wenjun; Li, Yang; Qi, Yulei; Sun, Cheng; Li, Yang; Shu, Jianchuan
• Is Part Of: Atmospheric science letters. Volume 18:Number 10(2017)
• Page Start: 409
• Page End: 416
• Publication Date: 2017-10-17
• Subjects: Arctic stratospheric ozone (ASO) -- tropical rainfall -- ENSO -- Walker circulation; Atmospheric physics -- Periodicals; 551
• DOI: 10.1002/asl.783
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1530-261X

Abstract

Abstract: The tropical precipitation has a wide effect on the tropical economics and social life. Many studies made efforts to improve the tropical precipitation forecast using tropical climate factors. This study, based on observations, found that Arctic stratospheric ozone (ASO) could exert a significant effect on the tropical precipitation, i.e. there is more (less) rainfall over the eastern Pacific and less (more) precipitation over the western Pacific when the ASO anomalies are lower (larger) than normal. It is because a decrease (increase) in ASO could affect El Niño (La Niña) events and lead to a weakened (enhanced) Walker circulation. Time‐slice experiments confirmed that the ASO anomalies can force El Niño–Southern Oscillation‐like anomalies of tropical sea surface temperature and subsequent tropical precipitation anomalies. In addition, the ASO variations could also change the occurrence probability of extreme precipitation in the tropics. During the anomalously low (high) ASO events, there are more occurrences of heavier precipitation over the eastern Pacific (western Pacific) and of lighter precipitation over the western Pacific (eastern Pacific). Furthermore, the ASO variations lead tropical rainfall by approximately 21 months, suggesting that the ASO can serve as a potentially effective predictor of tropical rainfall. Abstract : Correlation coefficients between the −Arctic stratospheric ozone (ASO) index and rainfall, for the ASO index leading rainfall by (a) 0 months, (b) 3 months, (c) 6 months, (d) 9 months, (e) 12 months, (f) 15 months, (g) 18 months and (h) 21 months. Ozone is based on Stratospheric Water and OzOne Satellite Homogenized (SWOOSH) data. Rainfall is from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project data. Only regions with correlations significant at the 95% confidence level are shaded (see Section 2 for details of the statistical significance test).