A simulation-based framework for estimating probable open-pit mine closure time and cost. (20th November 2017) - Paricheh, Morteza
Abstract: Today, the technical challenges for estimating closure time and cost are two significant parts of mine closure management. In this paper, a simulation-based framework is established to determine the probable open-pit mine closure times and mine closure costs. The model incorporates price uncertainty into the probable mine closure time. To estimate the closure cost more accurately, the Hutchison's technique is modified using the predefined mine closure times. This technique uses Monte Carlo simulation method and decision tree analysis to estimate mine closure cost in a probabilistic manner. The proposed framework is applied in a 2D hypothetical geological block model. The results show that the model works well and it can be used in real cases. Graphical abstract: Highlights: A simulation-based approach is applied to estimate the probable ultimate open pits under price uncertainty. Probable pit concept is used to estimate the probable open pit mine closure time. The Hutchison's technique is modified to estimate open pit mine closure cost using the predefined probable pits. The paper deals with both closure time and closure cost in a probabilistic manner.