Long-term predictions of ambient dose equivalent rates after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident. Issue 12 (2nd December 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Kinase, Sakae; Takahashi, Tomoyuki; Saito, Kimiaki
• Is Part Of: Journal of nuclear science and technology. Volume 54:Issue 12(2017)
• Page Start: 1345
• Page End: 1354
• Publication Date: 2017-12-02
• Subjects: Ambient dose equivalent rate -- ecological half-life -- prediction model -- long-term contaminated area -- existing exposure situation -- radiological protection -- Fukushima; Nuclear engineering -- Periodicals; Nuclear physics -- Periodicals; Nuclear energy -- Periodicals; 621.4805
• DOI: 10.1080/00223131.2017.1365659
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0022-3131

Abstract

ABSTRACT: To analyze radiation protection strategies and rehabilitation programs in Fukushima, prediction models have been developed for ambient dose equivalent rate distributions within the 80 km-radius around the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. The prediction models characterized by ecological half-lives of radioactive caesium for land-use, enable Fukushima residents to obtain distribution maps of ambient dose equivalent rates after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident. Model parameters such as the ecological half-lives for the short-term component and the fractional distribution of short-term component were evaluated using ambient dose equivalent rates through car/vehicle-borne surveys. It was found that the ecological half-lives among land-use differ only slightly, whereas the fractional distributions of the short-term component are clearly dependent on land-use. In addition, uncertainties concerning predictions of ambient dose equivalent rates arising from variability in model parameters were assessed using Monte Carlo simulations. Long-term changes of ambient dose equivalent rates were predicted for different land-use areas. Distribution maps of ambient dose equivalent rates for the next 30 years after the accident, created by the prediction models are expected to be useful for follow-up of the radiological situation since they provide information on the space variation of the ambient dose equivalent rates in inhabited areas.