Creating risk management strategies based on uncertain assumptions and aspects from assumption-based planning. (November 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Berner, Christine Louise; Flage, Roger
• Is Part Of: Reliability engineering & system safety. Volume 167(2017)
• Page Start: 10
• Page End: 19
• Publication Date: 2017-11
• Subjects: Semi-quantitative risk assessment -- Risk management strategy -- Assumption-based planning -- Uncertain assumptions; Reliability (Engineering) -- Periodicals; System safety -- Periodicals; Industrial safety -- Periodicals; Fiabilité -- Périodiques; Sécurité des systèmes -- Périodiques; Sécurité du travail -- Périodiques; 620.00452
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2017.05.009
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0951-8320

Abstract

Highlights: Making assumptions is inevitable when performing quantitative risk assessment (QRA). We suggest a scheme for systematic management of uncertain QRA assumptions. The scheme supports the development of post-assessment management strategies. The strategies are based on the so-called Assumption-Based Planning framework. An example is included to illustrate the use of the suggested scheme. Abstract: Risk assessments are performed to support decision-making, which could have a long-term impact, for example decisions related to the use of different techniques to plug and abandon an old oil well. The uncertainties related to potential future events and their consequences are in this case often large, which may lead to the introduction of uncertain assumptions and thus make it difficult to ensure that the decision made also provides an acceptable risk level for the future. Recently, a scheme for the systematic treatment of uncertain assumptions in (semi-)quantitative risk assessments was proposed. The suggested scheme focused on how a risk analyst can treat and reflect uncertainties related to the assumptions underlying such a risk assessment. In the present paper, we extend this scheme to provide guidance also to risk managers on how to follow up assumptions after the risk assessment has been performed and the decision made. The aim is to provide a systematic scheme for the development of strategies, motivated by so-called assumption-based planning, that risk managers can use to ensure an acceptable long-term risk level. An example is included to illustrate the use of the suggested scheme.