A dynamic simulation of low-carbon policy influences on endogenous electricity demand in an isolated island system. (October 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Matthew, George Jr.; Nuttall, William J; Mestel, Ben; Dooley, Laurence S
• Is Part Of: Energy policy. Volume 109(2017)
• Page Start: 121
• Page End: 131
• Publication Date: 2017-10
• Subjects: Endogenous electricity demand -- Island electricity systems -- System dynamics -- Electric-vehicles expansion -- Energy efficiency -- Tourism; Energy policy -- Periodicals; Politique énergétique -- Périodiques; Electronic journals; 333.79
• DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2017.06.060
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0301-4215

Abstract

Abstract: This paper considers the dynamics of electricity demand in response to changes arising from low-carbon policies and socio-economic developments. As part of an investigation into the evolution of such systems on small economically-developed islands, endogenous electricity demand and associated policies are studied for the Azorean island of São Miguel. A comprehensive System Dynamics (SD) model covering the period 2005 − 2050 is presented which captures both historical behaviours and real-world influences on the endogenous demand dynamics of an island-based electricity system. The impact of tourism, energy efficiency and electric vehicles (EV) expansion allied with associated policy options, are critically evaluated by the SD model using a series of scenarios. The model shows that energy efficiency measures exhibit the most significant long-term impact on electricity demand, while in contrast, policies to increase tourism have a much less direct impact and EV expansion has thought-provoking impacts on the long-term demand, although this is not as influential as energy efficiency measures. Highlights: Investigation into low-carbon policy impact on future endogenous electricity demand. Identifies the influential policy impact on demand dynamics by using an SD model. On São Miguel the long-term demand will continue to be influenced by mainly locals. Hybrid low-carbon policy and market effects leads to high levels of electric vehicles.