Computationally-generated nuclear forensic characteristics of early production reactors with an emphasis on sensitivity and uncertainty. (December 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Redd, Evan M.; Sjoden, Glenn; Erickson, Anna
• Is Part Of: Annals of nuclear energy. Volume 110(2017:Dec.)
• Page Start: 941
• Page End: 947
• Publication Date: 2017-12
• Subjects: Nuclear forensics -- Sensitivity and uncertainty -- Nuclear forensic signatures -- Computationally-derived signatures; Nuclear energy -- Periodicals; Nuclear engineering -- Periodicals; 621.4805
• DOI: 10.1016/j.anucene.2017.07.032
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0306-4549

Abstract

Highlights: X-10 reactor is used as a case study for nuclear forensic signatures. S/U analysis is conducted to derive statistically relevant markers. Computationally-generated signatures aid with proliferation pathway identification. Highest uncertainty in total plutonium production originates from 238 Pu and 242 Pu. Abstract: With nuclear technology and analysis advancements, site access restrictions, and ban on nuclear testing, computationally-generated nuclear forensic signatures are becoming more important in gaining knowledge to a reclusive country's weapon material production capabilities. In particular, graphite-moderated reactors provide an appropriate case study for isotopics relevant in Pu production in a clandestine nuclear program due to the ease of design and low thermal output. We study the production characteristics of the X-10 reactor with a goal to develop statistically-relevant nuclear forensic signatures from early Pu production. In X-10 reactor, a flat flux gradient and low burnup produce exceptionally pure Pu as evident by the 240 Pu/ 239 Pu ratio. However, these design aspects also make determining reactor zone attribution, done with the 242 Pu/ 240 Pu ratio, uncertain. Alternatively, the same ratios produce statistically differentiable results between Manhattan Project and post-Manhattan Project reactor configurations, allowing for attribution conclusions.