Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example. Issue 11 (18th August 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Westerberg, Ida K.; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Beven, Keith J.; Coxon, Gemma; Krueger, Tobias
• Is Part Of: Hydrological sciences journal. Volume 62:Issue 11(2017)
• Page Start: 1705
• Page End: 1713
• Publication Date: 2017-08-18
• Subjects: Uncertainty -- socio-hydrology -- perceptual model -- flood risk -- change analysis; Hydrology -- Periodicals; 551.4805
• DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2017.1356926
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0262-6667

Abstract

ABSTRACT: Characterizing, understanding and better estimating uncertainties are key concerns for drawing robust conclusions when analyzing changing socio-hydrological systems. Here we suggest developing a perceptual model of uncertainty that is complementary to the perceptual model of the socio-hydrological system and we provide an example application to flood risk change analysis. Such a perceptual model aims to make all relevant uncertainty sources – and different perceptions thereof – explicit in a structured way. It is a first step to assessing uncertainty in system outcomes that can help to prioritize research efforts and to structure dialogue and communication about uncertainty in interdisciplinary work.