A perspective on Seveso accident based on cause-consequences analysis by three different methods. (September 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Fabiano, B.; Vianello, C.; Reverberi, A.P.; Lunghi, E.; Maschio, G.
• Is Part Of: Journal of loss prevention in the process industries. Volume 49:Part A(2017)
• Page Start: 18
• Page End: 35
• Publication Date: 2017-09
• Subjects: AcciMap -- Black swan -- Energy barrier -- Seveso accident -- System dynamics; Chemical industries -- Safety measures -- Periodicals; 660.2804
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2017.01.021
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0950-4230

Abstract

Abstract: Seveso incident happened on Saturday 10th July 1976 within the production plant of 2, 4, 5-trichlorophenol at the ICMESA factory represents a watershed because it gave off a specific legislation in the field of safety regarding activities subjected to Major Accident Hazards (MAH) and the handling of dangerous substances. Although the severity of the mishap, still nowadays the real cause of the accident remains, at least partially, shrouded in uncertainty and different mechanism hypotheses were proposed. These doubts could lead considering Seveso mishap as a "black swan" incident, i.e. an improbable event characterized by three peculiarities: it is not expected; it has an extreme impact; it is explainable and predictable after the fact. Further investigation appears to be essential, analyzing the available material and processing a deep analysis towards several methods, which provide different views and interpretations of the fact. To this purpose, three methods were selected: AcciMap approach; the Energy Barrier Model; the System-Theoretic Accident Model & Processes (STAMP) coupled with a dynamic approach. The last part of this work is dedicated to a specific modelling of the incident through system dynamics technique using a customized framework covering technical, human and organizational aspects. Highlights: An historical critical review on Seveso incident is presented. Seveso accident is investigated by three different analytical techniques. A credit-factors mechanism of analysis by a customized tool has been worked out. Seveso event cannot be considered as a perfect "black swan".