Comparative evaluation of human heat stress indices on selected hospital admissions in Sydney, Australia. (16th July 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Goldie, James; Alexander, Lisa; Lewis, Sophie C.; Sherwood, Steven
• Is Part Of: Australian and New Zealand journal of public health. Volume 41:Number 4(2017:Aug.)
• Page Start: 381
• Page End: 387
• Publication Date: 2017-07-16
• Subjects: heatwave -- humidity -- temperature -- morbidity -- New South Wales; Public health -- Australia -- Periodicals; Public health -- New Zealand -- Periodicals; Medical care -- Australia -- Periodicals; Medical care -- New Zealand -- Periodicals; 362.10993
• DOI: 10.1111/1753-6405.12692
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1326-0200

Abstract

Abstract: Objective: To find appropriate regression model specifications for counts of the daily hospital admissions of a Sydney cohort and determine which human heat stress indices best improve the models' fit. Methods: We built parent models of eight daily counts of admission records using weather station observations, census population estimates and public holiday data. We added heat stress indices; models with lower Akaike Information Criterion scores were judged a better fit. Results: Five of the eight parent models demonstrated adequate fit. Daily maximum Simplified Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (sWBGT) consistently improved fit more than most other indices; temperature and heatwave indices also modelled some health outcomes well. Humidity and heat‐humidity indices better fit counts of patients who died following admission. Conclusions: Maximum sWBGT is an ideal measure of heat stress for these types of Sydney hospital admissions. Simple temperature indices are a good fallback where a narrower range of conditions is investigated. Implications for public health: This study confirms the importance of selecting appropriate heat stress indices for modelling. Epidemiologists projecting Sydney hospital admissions should use maximum sWBGT as a common measure of heat stress. Health organisations interested in short‐range forecasting may prefer simple temperature indices.