Exploring the economic case for early investment in climate change mitigation in middle-income countries: a case study of Johor Bahru, Malaysia. (7th August 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Colenbrander, Sarah; Gouldson, Andy; Sudmant, Andrew Heshedahl; Papargyropoulou, Effie; Chau, Loon Wai; Ho, Chin Siong
• Is Part Of: Climate and development. Volume 8:Number 4(2016)
• Page Start: 351
• Page End: 364
• Publication Date: 2016-08-07
• Subjects: energy -- climate policy -- cities -- carbon Kuznets curve -- low-carbon investment; Climatic changes -- Periodicals; Climatic changes -- Environmental aspects -- Periodicals; Climatic changes -- Economic aspects -- Periodicals; Global temperature changes -- Environmental aspects -- Periodicals; 363.7387405
• DOI: 10.1080/17565529.2015.1040367
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1756-5529

Abstract

Abstract : The assumption that climate mitigation can only be afforded at a particular level of income is implicit in global climate negotiations. This suggests that middle-income countries may reach a tipping point in their development process where low-carbon investment becomes more viable. In order to avoid dangerous levels of climate change, this tipping point needs to be brought forward in time: upper-middle-income countries are already responsible for 37.8% of global CO2 emissions. We explore the scope for large-scale investment in climate mitigation in Johor Bahru, a fast-growing industrial city in Malaysia. We find that the city could reduce per capita emissions by 10.0% by 2025, relative to 2014 levels, through cost-effective investments. If the returns could be recovered and reinvested in low-carbon measures, Johor Bahru could reduce per capita emissions by 35.2% by 2025, relative to 2014 levels. This result suggests that the tipping point may be a function of political will and institutional capacity as well as income. This has substantial implications for global climate policy discussions, particularly the opportunities and responsibilities of middle-income countries. If comparable savings can be delivered across cities in middle-income countries, this would equate to a reduction in global emissions of 6.3% with the exploitation of cost-effective options and 11.3% with the exploitation of cost-neutral options. Investing in economically attractive low-carbon measures could also provide cities in middle-income countries with an opportunity to build the political momentum and institutional capacities necessary for deeper decarbonization.