On the role of solar photovoltaics in global energy transition scenarios. (17th March 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Breyer, Christian; Bogdanov, Dmitrii; Gulagi, Ashish; Aghahosseini, Arman; Barbosa, Larissa S.N.S.; Koskinen, Otto; Barasa, Maulidi; Caldera, Upeksha; Afanasyeva, Svetlana; Child, Michael; Farfan, Javier; Vainikka, Pasi
• Is Part Of: Progress in photovoltaics. Volume 25:Number 8(2017)
• Page Start: 727
• Page End: 745
• Publication Date: 2017-03-17
• Subjects: PV demand -- battery demand -- energy transition scenario -- hourly resolution -- 100% renewable energy; Solar cells -- Periodicals; Photovoltaic cells -- Periodicals; Solar power plants -- Periodicals; 621.31245
• DOI: 10.1002/pip.2885
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1062-7995

Abstract

Abstract: The global energy system has to be transformed towards high levels of sustainability in order to comply with the COP21 agreement. Solar photovoltaic (PV) offers excellent characteristics to play a major role in this energy transition. The key objective of this work is to investigate the role of PV in the global energy transition based on respective scenarios and a newly introduced energy transition model developed by the authors. A progressive group of energy transition scenarios present results of a fast growth of installed PV capacities and a high energy supply share of solar energy to the total primary energy demand in the world in the decades to come. These progressive energy transition scenarios can be confirmed. For the very first time, a full hourly modelling for an entire year is performed for the world, subdivided in 145 sub‐regions, which is required to reflect the intermittent character of the future energy system. The model derives total installed solar PV capacity requirements of 7.1–9.1 TWp for the electricity sector (as of the year 2015) and 27.4 TWp for the entire energy system in the mid‐term. The long‐term capacity is expected to be 42 TWp and, because of the ongoing cost reduction of PV and battery technologies, this value is found to be the lower limit for the installed capacities. Solar PV electricity is expected to be the largest, least cost and most relevant source of energy in the mid‐term to long‐term for the global energy supply. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Abstract : This is the first work presenting results for the global solar photovoltaic (PV) demand modelled in hourly resolution for an entire year composed in nine major regions aggregating 145 sub‐regions for an energy system based on 100% renewable energy. The energy supply share of solar PV is found to be of slightly more than 40% and solar PV capacities of about 27 and 42 TWp from the mid to the end of the 21st century. These results confirm progressive studies on the leading role of solar PV in the future energy system, now based on a more sophisticated methodology.