China's Growth Slowdown: Lessons from Japan's Experience and the Expected Impact on Japan, the USA and Germany. (September 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Fukao, Kyoji; Yuan, Tangjun
• Other Names: Wan Guanghua guestEditor.; Morgan Peter J. guestEditor.
• Is Part Of: China & world economy. Volume 24:Number 5(2016:Sep./Oct.)
• Page Start: 122
• Page End: 146
• Publication Date: 2016-09
• Subjects: excess saving -- natural rate of growth -- total factor productivity -- world input–output database; D24 -- F17 -- O47 -- O57 -- R15; Economic indicators -- China -- Periodicals; China -- Economic conditions -- 1976- -- Periodicals; China -- Economic policy -- 1976- -- Periodicals; China -- Commerce -- Periodicals; Economics -- China -- Periodicals; 337.951
• DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12177
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1671-2234

Abstract

Abstract: China is switching from economic growth based on extremely rapid capital accumulation to economic growth based on structural reforms and accelerated total factor productivity growth. Meanwhile, China will also face a serious excess saving problem as capital accumulation slows and, hence, needs to reduce its private saving rate. Based on this analysis, we estimated the economic impact of China's growth slowdown and hypothetical economic transformation on Japan, the USA and Germany using the world input–output database. We compared the following three scenarios for China's final demand in 2020 and economic growth from 2015 to 2020: (i) an optimistic scenario (GDP growth rate = 6.2%, investment/GDP = 0.501); (ii) a slowdown scenario (GDP growth rate = 4%, investment/GDP = 0.501); and (iii) a structural reform scenario (GDP growth rate = 6.2%, investment/GDP = 0.3). Our analysis suggests that Japan and Germany would suffer more from structural reforms in China than from a slowdown in growth. Meanwhile, for the USA, the employment decline triggered by structural reforms would be much smaller than the employment decline caused by a slowdown in growth.