Crown‐of‐thorns starfish undermine the resilience of coral populations on the Great Barrier Reef. Issue 7 (27th April 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Vercelloni, Julie; Caley, M. Julian; Mengersen, Kerrie
• Other Names: Leprieur Fabien checker.
• Is Part Of: Global ecology & biogeography. Volume 26:Issue 7(2017)
• Page Start: 846
• Page End: 853
• Publication Date: 2017-04-27
• Subjects: additive effects -- Bayesian statistics -- coral trajectories -- large spatial‐scale -- multiple disturbances -- population dynamics; Ecology -- Periodicals; Biogeography -- Periodicals; Biodiversity -- Periodicals; Macroevolution -- Periodicals; 577
• DOI: 10.1111/geb.12590
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1466-822X

Abstract

Abstract: Aim: Increasingly frequent and intense disturbances of many kinds are reducing the populations of habitat‐forming species. For example, disturbances, including coral bleaching, storms and cyclones, coral disease and Crown‐of‐Thorns starfish (CoTS) outbreaks, have been important contributors to the global decline of coral populations. Understanding these the effects of such disturbances is challenging but necessary for their effective management. In this paper, we provide a novel spatially and temporally explicit perspective on the role of multiple and interacting disturbances on population dynamics. Location: Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Time period: 1995–2011. Major taxa studied: Acropora species. Methods: A semi‐parametric Bayesian hierarchical model was used to estimate the form and strength of the cumulative effects of multiple disturbances that have affected coral populations at different locations, frequencies and intensities, and in different orders over 16 years. Boosted regression trees and random forest models were used to rank the relative importance of four types of disturbances in reducing the ability of coral populations to recover following disturbance. Results: We show that while all the disturbance agents examined had clear negative impacts, coral predation by CoTS was the strongest contributor to the decline of coral cover and resilience of coral populations. The effects of multiple disturbances on individual reef sites were overwhelmingly additive. Main conclusions: Reduction of coral predation through control of CoTS could substantially reduce the severity of disturbances along the GBR and promote greater resilience, and thereby recovery, of coral populations.