Stochastic renewal process models for estimation of damage cost over the life-cycle of a structure. (July 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Pandey, Mahesh D.; van der Weide, J.A.M.
• Is Part Of: Structural safety. Volume 67(2017)
• Page Start: 27
• Page End: 38
• Publication Date: 2017-07
• Subjects: Stochastic process -- Renewal process -- Life cycle analysis -- Seismic risk -- Renewal function rate -- Discounted cost -- Expected cost -- Structural safety; Structural stability -- Periodicals; Safety factor in engineering -- Periodicals; Reliability (Engineering) -- Periodicals; Constructions -- Stabilité -- Périodiques; Coefficient de sécurité en ingénierie -- Périodiques; Fiabilité -- Périodiques; 620.86
• DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2017.03.002
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0167-4730

Abstract

Highlights: A clear and comprehensive stochastic formulation for the life cycle cost analysis. The mean and variance of discounted life cycle cost. The solutions are derived for a finite time horizon. The solutions are more practical than the widely used asymptotic solution. Large uncertainty associated with the life cycle cost is illustrated. Abstract: In the life-cycle cost analysis of a structure, the total cost of damage caused by external hazards like earthquakes, wind storms and flood is an important but highly uncertain component. In the literature, the expected damage cost is typically analyzed under the assumption of either the homogeneous Poisson process or the renewal process in an infinite time horizon (i.e., asymptotic solution). The paper reformulates the damage cost estimation problem as a compound renewal process and derives general solutions for the mean and variance of total cost, with and without discounting, over the life cycle of the structure. The paper highlights a fundamental property of the renewal process, referred to as renewal decomposition, which is a key to solving a wide range of life cycle analysis problems. The proposed formulation generalizes the results given in the literature, and it can be used to optimize the design and life cycle performance of structures.